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Stock Watch

Friday, August 29, 2008

How to avoid trading fees & extend contra period?

Just a small tips on how to earn back your trading fees & to extend your contra payment period on stock purchase:

  1. Apply for a DBS Credit Card & a Standard Chartered XtraSaver Account.
  2. After a stock purchase, use DBS Credit Card to pay your broker for your stock purchase online. Note that only DBS allows you to do this. This can help you to extend your actual cash payment by around one month!!
  3. By credit card payment due date, use Standard Chartered XtraSaver Debit Card to pay by NETS via AXS machine. XtraSaver provides 0.5% rebate for all NETS transactions up to a limit of $50 per month. For a sum of $10,000 stock purchase, you already get back $50, and this will help to pay for almost 90% of your buy & sell trading fees.

Cheers and Good Luck!

OCBC SmartSavings & MayBank ISavvy

I would like to bring to your attention that the OCBC SmartSavings Account's interest rate has slightly deviated according to below:

1st $10000 - 0.5% p.a.
Following - 1.0% p.a.

instead of the 1.0% for the full sum that I have stated before.

This brings MayBank ISavvy Savings Account to light, as depending on your savings amount, if offers a better rate than OCBC SmartSavings Account. MayBank ISavvy offers:

Daily balance below S$5,000 0.25% p.a.
Daily balance of S$5,000 to below S$50,000 0.88% p.a.
Daily balance of S$50,000 and above 1.18% p.a.

Do your sum and maximize your earnings!!

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Fundamental Analysis Part 2

Financial Numbers

Trade (Account) receivables

Money owed by customers (individuals or corporations) to another entity in exchange for goods or services that have been delivered or used, but not yet paid for.

Look out for increasing Account Receivables over the quarters, as this may signify that the company has problem collecting money from their customers, which may result in bad debt.


Operating Cash Flow or Cash generated from (used in) operations

The cash generated from the operations of a company, and excluding all other exceptions and non-cash items. It is generally defined as profit before tax:

  • plus non cash items e.g depreciation, amortisation, provisioning
  • plus interest expense or minus interest income
  • plus investment losses or minus investment gains (e.g disposal of assets, shares of associates, foreign exchange)
  • plus change in trade payables (under working capital)
  • minus change in trade receivables(under working capital)
  • minus change in inventories(under working capital)
This is an important number to look at, as it provides an insight into how much a company is earning from its core operation, and excludes all other exceptional and non-cash gain or loss. E.g a company may be losing money from its core business, but shows a good profit due to a one-time gain from disposal of an property. This is deceiving to the eyes of the investor. It is important for a company's operating cash flow to be growing.

Though there are many more financial ratios and numbers out there, it is sufficient to consider those that I have included in Fundamental Analysis Part 1 and Part 2, to have a good analysis of a company's health. Wish you Luck!!

Fundamental Analysis Part 1

Financial Ratios

Below lists some of the more commonly used financial ratios in fundamental analysis for determining the health and affordability of a company. Instead of going thru all the possible ratios available, below should be enough to determine the fundamentals of a company.


Gross Profit Margin (%) = [(Revenue - Cost of goods sold) / Revenue] x 100

Cost of goods sold includes costs directly linked with producing the goods and services sold by a company, such as material and labor. It does not include indirect fixed costs like office expenses, rent, administrative costs, etc.

This number represents the proportion of each dollar of revenue that the company retains as gross profit. For example, if a company's gross margin for the most recent quarter was 35%, it would retain $0.35 from each dollar of revenue generated, to be put towards paying off selling, general and administrative expenses, interest expenses and distributions to shareholders. The higher the percentage, the more profitable the business is.

Operating Margin (%) = [Operating Income / Revenue] x 100

EBIT (Earnings before Interest and Taxes) = Operating Revenue – Operating Expenses (OPEX) + Non-operating Income
Operating Income = Operating Revenue – Operating Expenses (excludes non-operating income)

Operating margin gives analysts an idea of how much a company makes (before interest and taxes) on each dollar of sales. . If a company's margin is increasing, it is earning more per dollar of sales. The higher the margin, the better.

Net Margin (%) = [Net Profit / Revenue] x 100

It shows how much of each dollar earned by the company is translated into profits. A low profit margin indicates a low margin of safety: higher risk that a decline in sales will erase profits and result in a net loss.

It is not very meaningful to compare the gross/operating/net margin between companies of different industry. When looking at margins to determine the quality of a company, it is best to look at the change in margins over time and to compare the company's yearly or quarterly figures to those of its competitors. When there is a gradual or sudden drop in these margins, do find out the reason as the company may be affected by some cost increase and does not manage it well.

PE(Price to Earnings) Ratio = Share Price per share / Annual Earnings per share

The price per share is the market price of a single share of the stock. The earnings per share is the net income of the company for the most recent 12 month period, divided by number of shares outstanding. The earnings per share(EPS) used can also be the "diluted EPS" or the "comprehensive EPS".

EPS is usually from the last four quarters (trailing PE), but sometimes it can be taken from the estimates of earnings expected in the next four quarters (projected or forward PE). A third variation uses the sum of the last two actual quarters and the estimates of the next two quarters.

In layman terms, it shows how much investors are willing to pay per dollar of earnings. If a company were currently trading at a multiple (PE) of 20, the interpretation is that an investor is willing to pay $20 for $1 of current earnings.

In general
, a high PE suggests that investors are expecting higher earnings growth in the future compared to companies with a lower PE. Investors can use the PE ratio to compare the value of stocks: if one stock has a PE twice that of another stock, all things being equal
, it is a less attractive investment.

PB (Price to Book) ratio = Share Price per share / Book Value per share

The price per share is the market price of a single share of the stock. A company's book value is its total assets minus intangible assets and liabilities. In the United Kingdom, the term net asset value may refer to the book value of a company.

In general, a lower PB ratio could mean that the stock is undervalued. This ratio also gives some idea of whether you're paying too much for what would be left if the company went bankrupt immediately.

It varies a fair amount by industry. Industries that require more infrastructure capital (for each dollar of profit) will usually trade at PB ratios much lower than of, for example, consulting firms.

It is also known as the market-to-book ratio and the price-to-equity ratio

PE and PB Ratios are 2 of the most commonly used ratios to provide a quick and rough estimation of "how low is the current share price". As a general guide, a PE below 10 and a PB below 3 is fine. SGX's average PE is currently at around 14. Generally, if a blue chip is trading below a PE of 10, you can say that it is at a bargain, and if any good growth company is trading at a low PE of 5-7 and less than PB of 2, it should be considered cheap. However, these 2 ratios should not be used as the only guide as it only covers only a portion of the story. I personally will not go for a company trading at a forward PE of > 20.

Return on Equity (ROE) (%) = [Net Income / Shareholder's Equity] x 100

Shareholder's Equity = Total Assets - Total Liabilities OR

Share Capital + Retained Earnings - Treasury Shares

Treasury Shares = Stock that has been repurchased by the issuing company (Share Buyback)

Shareholder's Equity comes from two main sources. The first and original source is the money that was originally invested in the company, along with any additional investments made thereafter. The second comes from retained earnings that the company is able to accumulate over time through its operations.

ROE is a measure of a corporation's profitability that reveals how much profit a company generates with the money shareholders have invested. The higher, the better.

Return on Assets (ROA) (%) = [Net Income / Total Assets] x 100

The assets of the company are comprised of both debt and equity. Both of these types of financing are used to fund the operations of the company. The ROA figure gives investors an idea of how effectively the company is converting the money it has to invest into net income. The higher the ROA number, the better, because the company is earning more money on less investment.R

Return on assets gives an indication of the capital intensity of the company, which will depend on the industry; companies that require large initial investments will generally have lower return on assets


Both ROA and ROE are important indicators of the company's efficiency and management competency. Anybody can make a profit by throwing a ton of money at a problem, but very few managers excel at making large profits with little investment. It is usually more accurate to compare ROA/ROE of related industries (e.g capital intensive companies). I personally think that ROA is a better measure than ROE, as it includes the total assets that a company has to generate the return. In general, I will try to look for a company with ROA > 20% to invest in, though this is highly industry dependent.

Current Ratio = Current Assets / Current Liabilities

It measures whether or not a firm has enough resources to pay its debts over the next 12 months. It is used to give an idea of the company's ability to pay back its short-term liabilities (debt and payables) with its short-term assets (cash, inventory, receivables).
The higher the current ratio, the more capable the company is of paying its obligations. A ratio under 1 suggests that the company would be unable to pay off its obligations if they came due at that point. While this shows the company is not in good financial health, it does not necessarily mean that it will go bankrupt - as there are many ways to access financing - but it is definitely not a good sign.

Quick Ratio = (Current Assets - Inventories) / Current Liabilities

The quick ratio is more conservative than the current ratio, a more well-known liquidity measure, because it excludes inventory from current assets. Inventory is excluded because some companies have difficulty turning their inventory into cash. In the event that short-term obligations need to be paid off immediately, there are situations in which the current ratio would overestimate a company's short-term financial strength.


The higher the ratio, the better. Generally, the quick ratio (or known as acid test ratio) should be 1:1 or better, however this varies widely by industry

Debt/Equity Ratio = Total Liabilities / Shareholder's Equity

Note: Sometimes only interest-bearing, long-term debt is used instead of total liabilities in the calculation.

It indicates what proportion of equity and debt the company is using to finance its assets. A high debt/equity ratio generally means that a company has been aggressive in financing its growth with debt, which can generate more returns, however this also mean that the company is taking a higher risk, and may result in bankruptcy if the returns is less than the cost of the debt.

The debt/equity ratio depends on the industry in which the company operates, and will be higher for a capital intensive industry.

Debt Ratio = Total Liabilities / Total Assets

Debt Ratio is a financial ratio that indicates the percentage of a company's assets that are provided via debt. A company with a high debt ratio (highly leveraged) could be in danger if creditors start to demand repayment of debt.

In general, I will go for a company that have a current ratio of > 2, a quick ratio of > 1, a debt ratio of around 0.5-0.8, and a debt to equity ratio of around 1, especially in a bear market where business is brisk, and a company may easily go into bankruptcy due to inability to service their debts or refinance their debt. However, do compare these ratios with competitors as it varies between industry.

Friday, August 22, 2008

Which stock to invest in current bear market?

  1. Dividend Stock
    Go for companies with growing dividend payout and which is fundamentally sound. I personally do not think REIT is a good choice as it is still subjected to property cyclical downturn which will affect its NAV and rental. However some REIT present good values. Suntec REIT is well-positioned to leverage on the booming Marina Bay area, especially with the upcoming casino, and it is well below its NAV. One personal favourite is SPAusNet, which promises growing dividend till 2010 at a good yield 9-10%

  2. Offshore and Marine
    The recent steep oil-price correction has brought up concerns over the life cycle of this sector again. However I remain comfortable as: 1) the sector continues to deliver on earnings; and 2) recent export data show that it is about the only sector that is holding up, and I believe crude oil price will stay above $100. SembCorp is one balanced company, which provides exposure to water treatment industry as well. Another good company which has dropped to rather attractive value is Swiber, which has an attractive order book.

  3. China Consumer
    Though China growth is more or less affected by the US economy, it is still at double digit growth year on year. I would prefer China Consumer companies which has the bulk of their business in domestic China. I do not think companies like China Fish, Celestial, China Milk and China Sky will be adversely affected by the slower growth, and presented great value at their current price.

SGX Stock Dividend Yield

SGX Stock Dividend Yield Click to view an enlarged pic (Aug 08)

Monday, August 18, 2008

Objective of this Blog

Homme means Man in French. You can often see this word "Pour Homme" on a perfume bottle, which simply mean "for men".

I have originally wanted a web site where I can view all stock information in one place, but unfortunately I could not find it. Thus I thought of creating a blog where I can do this for my own convenience, and at the same time, share it with other interested investors out there, together with some of my own views on certain stocks.

Besides a site for investors, I will include other useful information in this blog like Food Guide in Singapore and other countries, some travel guides in certain cities, weather, maps search, search for interesting YouTube videos, recommendation of some technology gadgets which I think is good, as well as write-up on man-woman relationship, including guides on some general issues in life.

Hope that you find my blog useful. Thanks!

Saturday, August 16, 2008

China Fish - Is it cheap now?

China Fish has just reported their second quarter results and it seem satisfactory with revenue increasing by 24.1% and gross profit by 20.9% and net profit by 16.6%.

Weaknesses:

  1. Increase in Vessel Operation Cost (up 30.2%) and Cost of sales (Up 54.2%). Their result has been affected by increase in fuel price.
  2. Increase in Trade Receivables - a problem nagging a number of companies due to credit tightening.
  3. Next quarter results may be affected by closures and restrictions due to Olympic.

Strengths:

  1. South Pacific fishing operations underway with 2 supertrawlers deployed to the vicinity.
  2. New quota system in Peru will enhance the Group’s efficiency and performance.
  3. Oil price is on the fall, and consumption is expected to increase.

Considering the bad market sentiment now, for a good safety margin, I will buy this stock at a price of $1.13 pegged to an estimated forward PE of 5 and 3% dividend yield, if you are thinking of buying.

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Pacific Andes - Good buy!

  1. Pacific Andes Holdings (PAH) has a good track record of posting consistent profits since listing. It is also a fairly defensive play under present uncertain market condition as it is supplying a food item that is growing in terms of consumption patterns.
  2. Expect better catch quota for 2008, higher efficiency from its recently expanded Peru operation, still strong demand and high fish prices to be some of the drivers for growth.
  3. Good dividend yield of 5.3% at $0.39
  4. Undemanding valuation.

SP AusNet - Attractive Buy!

  1. Offers high and stable dividend yield of 9.8% at current price of $1.40.
  2. SP Ausnet is favoured for its stable and sustainable growth in distribution per stapled security due to its predictable cash flow from the regulated revenue. It’s a relatively “safe haven” stock to consider for its highly assured distribution payout. Notably, it guided for 11.55 Aust cents for FY08F and 11.8 Aust cents for FY09F.
  3. Favourable final decision at Gas Access Arrangement Review (GARR) & Transmission Regulatory Reset (TRR) secures and locks in around 90% of the revenue for gas and electricity transmission for the next 5 years till Dec 2012 and Mar 2014 respectively. Hence, in the near term, there is only the gas distribution scheduled for reset in Dec 2010. We can expect minimal surprises from now till 2010.
  4. It also refinanced A$1.55 billion debt at margins of between 40 and 50 basis points, representing favourable terms in the current market, no major need for refinancing till 2011.
  5. SPN operates in the regulated privatized monopoly of electricity and gas transmission and distribution sectors where its revenue is highly regulated. This eradicates any downside risks, albeit at the expense of upside surprises.

Is it right to invest in USD now? Which bank offers the best rate?

With the fall and rise of the US dollar recently, it becomes apparent to many that it may be a good choice to invest in the USD right now. The USD has recently risen from 1.34 to 1.41, and those who have catch on the trend may have earned themselves some pennies, however, is this trend going to continue? Is it right to invest in USD now?

With the US credit woes spreading to other countries, like Japan which face its first contraction in 6 years, and Europe whose economy is forecasted to have stalled, the USD is expected to rise against the yen and euros.

Singapore economy is affected as well, our full year 08 growth forecast has been reduced from around 6% to 4-5%.

With the fall in commodity and crude oil price recently, it is expected to reinforce the idea that the global economy is going down, and it will further boost the rise of USD.

However, i prefer to take a contrarian view of the USD trend. especially against the Singapore dollar. I do not see the price of commodity and crude price going down in the long term, and I expect MAS to continue its tightening policy against USD, though it will let the rise of SGD against the USD to be at a slower pace. Inflation will still be a bigger problem than economic growth in Singapore. Also, I expect US economy to be worse off than Singapore's, and to encourage exports from US, especially if the upcoming trade reports show that US exports have fallen substantially, US will not allow USD to appreciate as everyone has expected.

In the short term, USD/SGD will rise, however I expect the rate to fall to around 1.30 within a 12 month period.

So where is a good place to place your bet on USD when it falls to such at attractive rate of 1.3?

OCBC USD Time Deposit offers an attractive rate of 1.7% to 2.4% per annum for minimum placement of US$5000 for a period of 1 month. This is the best offer in town for the commoner like us!

Best Portable Laptop Speaker

I have recently done a research on laptop speaker and my criteria of search includes:
  • Portability
  • Sound Quality
  • Price
  • Ease of Battery Charging

My conclusion is the XMI X-mini Capsule Speaker is the Dragon Homme's choice! It is priced cheaply at $35, with a superb design in terms of size (it is only slightly bigger than a ping-pong ball) and texture, and surprisingly, the sound quality is good (though not excellent) and really loud. The battery can also be charged via a USB.

Good Buy! I have bought one myself!

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Wireless Mouse & Keyboard

Logitech Desktop MX 3200 - Before i bought my wireless mouse and keyboard, I did a lot of research and survey before i decide on MX 3200, and this is dragon homme choice of the year:
  • Reasonable in price ($159), unlike bluetooth set which cost at least $250
  • I have tested and there is no lag in reaction time at all!
  • Very easy to set up - done within minutes!
  • Connection is via a small USB tongle
  • Battery life can last for at least 6 months
  • No connection problem at all, unlike bluetooth set which I heard may interfere with your wireless network.
  • Nice features on the keyboard and mouse
  • Nice materials used on the keyboard and mouse

This is definitely a good buy!!

Which Savings Account has the best interest rate?

  1. Citibank Step-up - 1.2% per annum is achievable within 12 months; the "Catch" will be your current month balance must always be higher than previous month, unless your balance hits a minimum of $20,000.
  2. OCBC SmartSavings - 1% per annum; no Catch!

Which Credit or Debit Card gives the best rebate?

  1. Citibank Dividend Card - gives a total of 8% discount to petrol at Esso, if including the usual on-site 5%, it will be a total of 13%, the best so-far in town. It also gives 2% rebate to dining and groceries and 0.5% rebate for all other spending.
  2. Standard Chartered Prudential Platinum Card - good for holders of Prudential policies, as it gives a 0.9% rebate for all spending, which you can use it to deduct from your premium.
  3. UOB One Card - gives a rebate of $30 for 3 consecutive months of $300 monthly spending, and $80 for 3 consecutive months of $800 monthly spending, which works out to a 3% rebate.
  4. Standard Chartered Xtra Saver Account Debit Card - gives a rebate of 0.5% for all Nets spending, and 2% rebate (if no rebate on petrol, with it its 1%) for all overseas spending on its debit mastercard. It also gives discount for spending on petrol, with a total rebate limit of up to $300 monthly.