Investing in Exchange Traded Fund - ETF

With major indices and commodities falling to one of the all-time lows, it will be a good time to take a look at investing in one of the derivatives - the Exchange Traded Fund or in short, the ETF.

Many people will panic during a market downturn, and do not know which stock will be the next to be hit, but most of these people also like to make good use of this downturn to buy stocks at a bargain price. A good alternative will be to look at ETF.

What is ETF?

1. It is a investment fund listed on a stock exchange.
2. It tracks the performance of an index, commodity or bonds.
3. It functions the same way as a normal stock, and can be bought or sold via your broker like a stock.

In short, it inherits the PROS of both stock and unit trust.

Benefits

1. Diversification - It allows a wide exposure via a single instrument, e.g buying the STI ETF allows exposure to the STI which comprises of 30 stocks.
2. Exposure to inaccessible market - It allows exposure to say Taiwan and India markets via the Lyxor Taiwan and IS MSCI India ETFs, where normal investors normally have no means to buy a stock in these countries.
3. Lower cost - Instead of upfront charges of 3-5% for unit trusts, ETF will only incur the usual brokerage commissions of approximately 0.5% and clearing fee of 0.04%.
4. Transparency & Flexibility - ETF can be bought or sold like a stock during normal trading hours and its live prices can be easily accessible, unlike unit trusts where investors can only buy or sell at the end of the day.

Risks

1. Market Risk - It falls and rise like a normal stock
2. Foreign exchange - Most ETF are denominated in USD and thus a fall in US/SGD will result in a loss in exchange rates.
3. Tracking Error - There is a slight risk that the ETF will not be able to replicate the underlying exactly, though this is not expected to happen.

Fair Value of ETF

The estimate of the fair price of an ETF will be its NAV (Net Asset Value) per unit. The NAV per unit is the total value of all assets minus liabilities in the fund, divided by the number of outstanding ETF units.

NAV is calculated once at the end of each trading day. An estimate of the NAV, called indicative NAV (iNAV) is also calculated periodically throughout the trading day. You can find the NAV value of those ETFs traded on SGX by going into the "General Announcements" of each ETF

I personally do not find these NAV of any significant to an investor's investment decision. Since you are buying into a portfolio of stocks, it should usually be for middle to long term investment, thus just buy when the underlying market is down. You will reap the returns when the market is up in a few years time.

SGX ETFs

Name	Underlying	Listed	Lot	Bank	Code
ABF S'pore Bond Index Fund	iBoxx ABF S'pore Bond Fund	31 Aug 05	1000	DBS	ABF SG Bond ETF
CIMB FTSE ASEAN 40	FTSE/ ASEAN 40 Index	21 Sep 06	100	CIMB	CIMBFTASEAN40100US$
iShares MSCI India ETF	MSCI India Index	15 Jun 06	100	Barclays	IS MSCI India 100US$
Lyxor China Enterprise	Hang Seng China Enterprise Index	19 Oct 06	10	Lyxor	Lyxor China H 10US$
Lyxor Commodities CRB	Reuters/ Jefferies CRB Index	18 Jan 07	10	Lyxor	Lyxor CMDTY 10US$
Lyxor Hong Kong	Hang Seng Index	1 Mar 07	10	Lyxor	Lyxor HangSeng 10US$
Lyxor MSCI AC APAC ex Japan	MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan	19 Oct 06	10	Lyxor	Lyxor Asia 10US$
Lyxor MSCI Korea	MSCI Korea Index	7 Dec 06	10	Lyxor	Lyxor Korea 10US$
Lyxor MSCI Taiwan	MSCI Taiwan Index	1 Mar 07	10	Lyxor	Lyxor Taiwan 10US$
Lyxor MSCI India	MSCI India Index	5 Nov 08	10	Lyxor	Lyxor MS India 10US$
Lyxor MSCI Thailand	MSCI Thailand Index	5 Nov 08	10	Lyxor	Lyxor Thailand 10US$
Lyxor MSCI Malaysia	MSCI Malaysia Index	5 Nov 08	10	Lyxor	Lyxor Malaysia 10US$
Lyxor India Nifty	S&P CNX NIFTY index	28 Mar 08	10	Lyxor	Lyxor India Nifty 10
Lyxor MSCI Apex 50	MSCI Asia APEX 50 Index	5 Nov 08	10	Lyxor	Lyxor APEX50 10US$
Lyxor ETF Commodities CRB Non Energy	Reuters/Jefferies CRB Non-Energy index	5 Nov 08	10	Lyxor	Lyxor CRBNonEng 10 US$
streetTracks Gold Shares	Gold Spot Price	11 Oct 06	10	State Street	GLD 10US$
streetTracks Straits Times Index Fund	Straits Times Index	17 Apr 02	100	State Street	STF ETF

Review of Celestial Nutrifoods

With the demise of a popular growth China stock -FerroChina, think it is time that we take a good look at some other good China stock.

I have decided on Celestial, as it is a stock that I personally own, its valuation extremely cheap at current price, and it involves convertible bonds which is a popular method to raise cash by listed companies recently, but which also causes their prices to tumble after.

Let's take a good look at the convertible bonds of Celestial. It works this way:

1. Issued 12 June 2006 and up for redemption in 5 years on 12 June 2011.
2. A total of S$235,000,000 loaned.
3. Bond-holders can either convert the bonds to shares at the conversion price of $2.47, or redeem full on the maturity date (12 June 2011) at 129.263% of principal amount, or they have an option to redeem full on 12 June 2009 at 116.65%. Both provide same yield of 5.2%
4. The bonds do not bear any interest during the 5 years.
5. If fully converted, it will result in 91,439,689 additional shares, which is about 15.3% of the total current shares.

From the above, it clearly shows that it is in Celestial's best interest that all bond-holders will convert their bonds to shares, so that they will not have to cough up a large sum of money to repay the bond-holders. With Celestial currently trading at a price of around $0.30, I doubt that will happen, as investors will only convert when trading price is higher than their conversion price.

With current weak market sentiment, and where most bond-holders are institutional investors, in which most will need money in view of credit crunch, I have great reason to believe that most bond-holders will redeem the bonds on 12 June 2009, which means Celestial has 8 months to cough up a sum of S$274 million or RMB 1260.4 million

Let us take a look at Celestial cash flow. As of 2nd quarter 2008, it has about RMB 1651.1 million of cash, of which RMB 603 million has been invested in a new facility in Aug 2008, and left with RMB 1048 million. Based on FY 07 balance sheet, its current liabilities is around RMB 503 million, but that should be well covered by its trade receivables (assuming there is no default) of around 450 million.

Celestial net cash provided by operating activities is ard 450 million based on FY07. Adding together its trade receivables, operating cash and cash will yield RMB 1948 million. Its debt due by June 09 will be RMB 1763.4, inclusive of the payback to bond-holders. With this, I have reason to believe that Celestial has the ability to service its debt even if all the bond-holders choose to redeem on Jun 09.

What if all the bond-holders do a conversion to shares and results in dilution? The converted shares are about 15% of total shares. Celestial Historical PE is 2.2, its NAV per share is around $0.59, and price to NAV is only 0.478. Its price to revenue is 0.513 and current ratio is healthy at 4.325. Thus it can be seen that though it is to current shareholders' disadvantage if the bonds are fully converted, the fear has been overplayed as with the dilution, PE is still below 5 and price is still below NAV.

Thus I believe that there is no reason for Celestial to drop to its current low price.

Actually my only fear is not on the repayment of bonds, but what if melamine is found in Celestial's products as well? This will be disastrous. Let's wait for the tainted milk saga to settle down first....

BRTC Perfect Blemish Balm (BB Cream) Review

Blemish Balm cream, short for BB cream, is the latest craze of the ladies, as it works magic in covering spots and blemishes on the face, as well as providing skin care. In short it is a foundation cum concealer that has skin care properties like SPF, skin regeneration and the reason why it is so popular is, it evens out the skin tone so well that everyone seems to be having good and glowing skin.

The product was originated in Germany and used by dermatologists to help patients who have gone through laser skin surgery soothe and regenerate the skin.

Soon after, Korean celebs started using the cream and a craze was born. Big companies then took the idea and turned it into a product widely available to the public. The new product is suitable for all skin types, especially those with sensitive and acne-prone skin.

With reviews collected from a number of friends on the latest craze of ladies, the BB cream, I would like to provide a review on the most popular BB cream - the BRTC Perfect Blemish Balm Cream.

This BB cream has a thick texture, and thus works well in evening out the skin tone and covering up spots and blemishes as it spreads out and blends into the skin easily. Dark eye circles can be covered up effectively. Its smell is fine, and works above average on oil control, though it is not the best for oil control. It provides fairly fair skin tone after application.

After prolonged usage, skin is visibly clearer and fairer, and it helps in containing oil production.

This tube cost about $45 Singapore dollars if you bought it in Korea, and around $70-80 Singapore dollars if you bought it from auction sites. Unfortunately, it is only available currently in Korea. You can check out this site http://www.brtc.co.kr/FrontStore/iGoodsList.phtml?iCategoryId=25 for reference.

Companies that currently carry the BB cream are mostly Korean and include the following:

• Bio Remedies Therapeutic Cosmetics (BRTC)
• Skin Food
• Missha
• Etude House
• The Face Shop

Those that can be found in Singapore - Skin Food, Face Shop and Missha, does not have good review as compared to BRTC.

Please note different skin tones and types may have different suitability to the products. Thus do try out a few brands!

Fall of US Financial System

First the 5th largest investment bank, Bear Sterns falls, with a bailout by JP Morgan, supported by Fed $29 billion. Then Fannie and Freddie, bailed out by Fed in full, then Lehman, the world 4th largest investment bank, whose bleak future is looking at bankruptcy, as Fed has decided that they cannot afford to continue the bailout and disrupt the self-correcting market and with its intent to tell the market that "you have to solve your own problem!".

Then came Merill Lynch, the 3rd largest investment bank, who knows that they cannot wait for a public fund, and already in talks with BOA for a buyout before they follow the trail of Lehman. In fact, it has already been confirmed:

By Binyamin Appelbaum

Washington Post Staff Writer Sunday, September 14, 2008; 9:59 PM

Bank of America has struck a $44 billion deal to buy Merrill Lynch, according to two people familiar with the negotiations, a merger that will unite the nation's largest consumer bank with one of its most celebrated investment banking firms.

Who knows what will happen to the other banks? However I am pretty confident that JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs will survive, and emerge stronger than before, Thus, it will be 2 great choice for investment if you were to invest in US banks.

With the above episode, no banks in the world will be spared from losses as they deal with one another. European banks will be the next to be greatly affected, followed by Asian banks. For instance, China banks are holding a significant amount of stakes in Fannie and Freddie, and it is only a matter of time when they have to divulge their losses. Also, there has been talks that Singapore DBS bank has strong dealings with Lehman. What will happen if Lehman goes into bankruptcy, which is more or less confirmed.

The banks' stock is going to tumble hard soon, but this also means that we will finally be reaching the bottom of the market. However, do note that this financial crisis will only end when US housing prices stop falling. Once it has stabilized, it is time to start going into the market to make a killing.

I will putting up the US mortgage rate monitor in my blog soon...so Stay Tune!

Kin Mun Clinic Toa Payoh

This is a relatively popular skin clinic located at Blk 66 Toa Payoh Lor 4 #01-319, which is usually packed. Call 62566353 for appointment. You do not have to wait if you know which products you are buying.

I have used 3 of its products:

• Skin Renewal Cream
• Washing Gel
• Toner

Skin Renewal Cream - Effectively helps to reduce spots on your face after using it once per night for 2-4 weeks. It works like AHA and will cause peeling. I have used it and it really works!

Washing Gel and Toner - Used both together for oily skin. It helps to control oil production on your face and is pretty effective as well.

No more oily skin and spots!

Kose Sekkisei White Powder Wash Helps Oily Skin

I was having problem with oily skin since puberty, and had been unable to find a washing cream that can help to alleviate the problem. Recently, I was introduced to a relatively new product by Kose - Sekkisei White Powder Wash.

You can instantly feel your face rid of all the oil after using it, and after using it for a month plus, you can feel that the oil on your face is well-controlled.

Though it may be subjective, but it's no harm trying it!

Available at all major departmental stores at around $30+ per bottle.