To Buy or to sell?

A very interesting point for global equity. Some people must be wondering whether to follow the herd to buy and buy, or to sell and take profit.

A look at the recent trend, all tumbling stocks belong to defensive stocks - look at those stocks falling on Dow - Coke, J&J etc. In Singapore, REIT is tumbling down these 2 days after reaching new highs, and yield is falling to an average of 5%.

The fact that defensive stocks are falling, is good news for future stock trend, as investor are selling these stocks to jump into banking stocks and some cyclical stocks.

All central banks are printing money like nobody business, or lowering their interest rate, and this will continue to flood the stock market and keep it going.

US economy is improving, and my viewpoint is it will not be strong enough to entice Fed to stop the bond purchase, at least in the next 6 months, and this will also keep stocks going and US dollar getting stronger against other currencies. With it, gold and silver will keep falling.

Short Term Outlook: Sell Commodities and Precious Metals (especially Gold). Buy into US banking and cyclical stocks.

Long Term Outlook: Fed pullout will cause a tsunami, keep a lookout on REIT, and commodity stocks while it keeps falling. Some accumulation of gold will be good near 1000 mark.

Buy buy buy!

USA good job data, Greek debt will reach agreement, short term strong buy on equities.

US and European Total Writedowns - 2

BANK             2007     2008     2009      TOTAL

Citigroup        29.1     63.4     30.7     $123.2
Wachovia Corp     4.0     73.4               $77.4
Bank of America  12.1     29.2     35.5      $76.8 HSBC             19.3     30.3     26.4      $76.0
Lloyds            6.8     28.9     36.1      $71.8
Merrill Lynch    25.1     38.6               $63.7
UBS                       50.6      1.8      $52.4
RBS               7.0     23.5     21.3      $51.8
Fannie Mae        4.7     26.9     15.4      $47.0
JPMorgan Chase    4.5     10.2     29.5      $44.2
Freddie Mac       5.2     24.4     12.8      $42.4
Washington Mutual 5.1     36.7               $41.8
Barclays          7.0     16.5     12.7      $36.2
Wells Fargo       3.5      8.7     18.2      $30.4
Lehman Brothers  12.5     14.0               $26.5
Santander         4.8      8.3     13.2      $26.3
Morgan Stanley   10.3     10.1      2.4      $22.8
Commerzbank       3.9     13.3      4.5      $22.3
BNP Paribas       2.4      8.0     11.4      $21.8
Deutsche Bank     4.0     11.2      4.9      $20.1
UniCredit         3.5      5.1     11.3      $19.9
IKB                                          $14.7
Credit Suisse     3.5     11.9      0.5      $14.6
BBVA              2.7      4.2      7.7      $14.6
National City                                $14.0
C.Agricole        2.7      4.4      6.3      $13.4
Societe Gen       1.3      3.7      7.9      $12.9
Intesa Sanpaolo   1.6      4.5      4.9      $11.0
ING                        7.1      2.4       $9.5
Bayern LB                  1.1      8.0       $9.1
Goldman Sachs     1.7      4.9      1.9       $8.5
Natixis           2.0      2.5      2.0       $6.5
Canadian Imp                                  $6.5
Stan Chartered    0.8      1.8      2.0       $4.6
Erste Bank        0.8      2.5      1.3       $4.6
Bear Stearns               3.0      0.6       $3.6
Fortis                                        $3.1
WestLB                                        $3.0
Rabobank                  0.8       1.7       $2.5
 ===================================================

Total                                      $1,151.5

 (Sources: Reuters/annual reports/company filings)

Best of Singapore Food

Below are all the excellent food that I have personally tried and I have decided to blog them down to share. Go try them!!

Last updated on 13 Mar 10: Chia Bee Lor Mee, Whampoa Fish Head Steamboat and Ippudo

Singapore - Restaurants

1. Astons Specialties - Western Cuisine, 119 East Coast Road & few other express outlets around Singapore, visit http://astonsspecialties.blogspot.com/ for more information. Try the steak, it is soft and tender and cheap! Serves Wagyu beef at a reasonable price.
2. Boon Tong Kee at Balestier Road- Chinese Cuisine, 401 Balestier Road, this branch serves undenibly the best chicken rice in Singapore. The chicken is so tender that it melts in your mouth. Other dishes like the pork rib, soup, and salad you tiao are good as well!
3. 黑社会- Translate to Boss Restaurant, Chinese Cuisine, 1 Harbourfront Walk #02-156/157 Vivocity, Aircon and nice ambience, serves the best dim sum in town! but the dim sum is only available in the afternoon till 5pm.
4. Bottle Tree Village Seafood Restaurant - Chinese Cuisine. 60 Jalan Mempurong (Sembawang). This is a very tranquil and unique place located deep inside Sembawang Park and is facing the beach. A very nice ambience. You can only drive there and the place is so secluded that it is not easy to find. Direction: From Sembawang Road, head all the way to the end, in the direction of Sembawang Park, past the Sembawang Straits estate. When you come to Andrew Ave (where some pretty nice houses are being built), turn right and follow the signs leading into Jalan Mempurong where Bottle Tree Village is located. It serves seafood with Thai-Chinese style. Try the butter prawn, it is one of the best i have ever tasted. The rest of the food tastes pretty good too!
5. Canton Wok by Chef Kang - Chinese Cuisine, 382 Joo Chiat Road. Try the set menu, which comes with 10 dishes at around $260. It is relatively cheap and the food is yummy! However the crab is ok only.
6. Whampoa Fish Head Steamboat - Chinese Cuisine, at intersection of Balestier Rd and Ah Hood Road. Beside the Fish Head Steamboat, its other dishes are very good too! Prices are reasonable.
7. Tambuah Mas, Indonesian Cuisine, Orchard Road Paragon #B1-47. Branches at marina square and tanglin shopping center. It serves authentic Indonesian homestyle cuisine, delicious with classic coconut milk and belachan fragrance. Try the otah, curry and chilli chicken, belachan kangkong, sotong, and many more! and don't miss out the chendol dessert!
8. Matsuo Japanese Restaurant, 松尾，Japanese Cuisine, 1 Newton Road #01-17 Goldhill Plaza. An small authentic japanese restaurant frequent by japanese businessman, and it serves the freshest and sweetest sashimi in town, which is as good as those you find in Japan. However it is expensive (ard $120 per person). Be there to try the assorted sashimi set and the beef, they are simply awesome! Ambience is casual.
9. Ippudo - Japanese Cuisine, Mandarin Gallery Orchard #04-02/03/04. Serving one of the best ramen I have ever eaten. Tel: +65 6235 2797.
10. First Thai Food - Thai Cuisine, Purvis Street, Non-aircon and casual, Cash payment only, no reservation, serves the most authentic, best and one of the cheapest Thai food in Singapore. Try the Fried/Steam Fish and Fish Cake!
11. Nana Restaurant - Thai Cuisine, Far East Plaza, Aircon and casual, cheap and excellent. Try the Butter Prawn and Pandan Chicken!

Singapore - Hawker Centers/Coffee Shops

1. Bak Kut Teh - Sin Heng Claypot Bak Kut Teh - 439 Joo Chiat Road. The Best Bak Kut Teh I have ever experienced.
2. Bao & Cantonese Dim Sum - 道记，Dao Ji, #01-1018, People's Park Cooked Food Centre at Chinatown next to OG Department Store. This stall serves the best Bao (meat bun) in Singapore!!
3. Carrot Cake - 青山菜头粿, Qing Shan Carrot Cake, Blk 127 Toa Payoh Lor 1 Market, #02-30, 6am - 1pm, Closed on Mon. Try the white carrot cake, chilli is must have! It is the best I have tried!
4. Char Kway Teow - Cui Lu Shang Tang Fried Kuay Teow, 505 Beach Road, Golden Mile Food Centre #01-91. A unique fried kuay teow with lots of fried crispy anchovies and green crunchy vegetables, besides the fresh clams. Though it does not use lard, it tastes better than those with it. A must try and be there early as it usually closes by dinner time.
5. Chicken Rice - 瑞丰，Rui Feng Hainanese Chicken Rice, #01-1012, People's Park Cooked Food Centre at Chinatown, the large hawker center next to OG Department Store & ChinaTown MRT Exit. The chicken is soft and tender, the sauce is yummy, and the chilli is fragrant and hot enough!
6. Claypot Rice - Geylang Claypot Rice, 639 Geylang Lorong 33. This is the place which serve the best claypot rice in Singapore. You should try other signature dishes like the lotus duck, soft shell crab, stir fried beans and grouper. They are excellent too!! Visit http://www.geylangclaypot.com/ for more info, and please call 6744 4574 to pre-order to avoid long waiting time.
7. Crab - Mellban Seafood, Blk 232 AMK Ave 3 St 22. Try the butter crab, it is awesome! It has a branch at Toa Payoh Lorong 8, Blk 211, the crab at this branch is not as good.
8. Duck Rice - 福南鸭饭 Hock Nam Duck Rice, 588 Balestier Road, it is a small coffee shop situated along Balestier Road (near to Thomson side). Open only during the day. It serves one of the best tasting braised duck, that comes with chicken rice, some vegetables, and a tasty peanut soup at the price of $3.50. Trust me, it is marvellous!
9. Duce Rice - 阿盛鸭饭 Ah Seng Duck Rice, Serangoon Garden Hawker Center, it is a large hawker center situated just before the circle, opposite the Post Office. The braised duck sauce is very yummy!! The duck meat is also very thinly sliced, and the slightly salty but tender and tasty duck meat blends well with the white rice served.
10. Fish Soup Noodle - Wu Xiang Fish Soup, Located at a coffeeshop at Blk 304 Serangoon Avenue 2 (same of Dju Dju). The fish is fresh and the soup is very tasty! Open till after Midnight.
11. Fried Hokkien Mee - 天天来, Tian Tian Lai Fried Hokkien Mee, #02-27 Toa Payoh 127 Market & Food Centre, it serves the best ever fried hokkien mee I have ever tried, tasty with fragrant prawn smell and taste.
12. Kueh - 荣潮州 Yong's Teochew Kueh, Toa Payoh HDB Hub Interchange basement food court.
13. Laksa - 真善美 Zhen Shan Mei Claypot Laksa, Shenton Way Market Street Car Park Building. You can find the hottest, thickest and tastiest laksa in Singapore here. It is previously located at Depot Road, which is then moved to Killiney Road, and then to this new place.
14. Lor Mee - Chia Bee - Blk 10, North Bridge Road (coffee shop nearest to main road) - The Best Lor Mee with crispy fried fish, but it is only opened from around 1am till 11am.
15. Pig's Trotter - 韩家肉骨茶，Han's Bak Kut Teh, Store 42, East Coast Lagoon Food Village. Open in the afternoon till early evening. The braised Pig trotter is huge, fatty and delicious! and the dark sauce gravy is splendid! This is one place which sells the best braised pig trotter in town!
16. Rice - Dju Dju Indonesian Food, Located at a coffeeshop at Blk 304 Serangoon Avenue 2. The chilli is very nice, but spicy. The sambal chicken, sotong and otak is a must try! Closed at 9pm.
17. Rojak - 顺兴 Soon Heng Rojak, Toa Payoh HDB Hub Interchange basement food court. It is crispy, fresh with lots of peanuts! Closed at 8pm, & on weekends.
18. Wanton Mee - 华记云吞面，Hwa Kee Barbeque Pork Noodles，Stall no. 45，East Coast Lagoon Food Centre. It serves the best wanton mee with its yummy barbeque sauce in town!
19. Wu Xiang - 93 五香虾饼 93 Wu Xiang Xia Bing, #01-202 Hawker Centre, Blk 93, Toa Payoh Lorong 4, very crispy and fragrant! A must try!

Cakes, Pastries & Desserts

1. RIVE Gauche - Orchard Road, Takashimaya Department Store, Basement 2, a small retail outlet that sells the best cake I have ever tried. Try the Mango and Guanaja, it is simply awesome! It has another outlet at Orchard Road, Plaza Singapura, Basement 2.

This post will be updated continuously.....Stay Tuned!

Buy Financials on this Dip!

Most, if not all economy indicators are pointing to a recovery. Even a shocking event like Dubai World defaulting on their loans, is not strong enough to jolt the market from their uptrend. This proves the strength of the market. The lingering unemployment issue in the US is also seen to be stabilizing and employment rate will be ticking up gradually.

Most US banks have returned their TARP loans, except for a minor glitch recently by Citibank, that pull the financial stocks down yesterday due to the cold response to its new stocks, but this is Citibank, the worst hit bank by the financial crisis, and a bank that is still majority held by the US government, and with the fact that the government is looking to sell all their current holdings, the market will not be big enough to absorb all of this, and Citibank stock price will remain under pressure for a long time to come.

I do not see anything wrong with the other US banks, and with the recovery, financials will be the first to ride the bull. Include some financials into your portfolio, and I believe this few weeks will be a good time to do so.

Buy on dips!

The market seems to be running out of steam, and with a mixture of good and bad signals, traders seem to have chosen to take some profits off the table.

US markets lost 2-4% last night, and Asian markets are currently on the downtrend. As reasoned in my previous article, I believe there are more downside, however there are several stocks which have reached reasonable prices, and you may want to nibble a little.

One particular stock that I like is Toyota Motor (TSE). I have especially waited for its Sep sales results to be announced (and I expected it to be poor, or at least a drop from Aug), after the US cash for clunkers program in Aug. It has dropped from around 4100 to 3380 within 2 months, and historical prices have been an average of 5000-8000 plus. Its tangible book value is around 3208, which means it is pretty near its book value. March lows is around 2500.

Though Toyota is bleeding now, but one thing to note is Toyota is the number 1 automobile company in terms of global sales, it has the highest sales in US (exceeded GM), and it owns the most popular electric hybrid car, Prius.

Automobile industry is subjected to cycles, and though I do not expect Toyota to bounce back very soon, it will be back eventually. Being also a dividend stock (around 2-4%), my view is this is a stock to hold for long-term, for both dividend and capital gains.

Thus I have issued a buy call for Toyota Motor, at a buy price of 3380 yen. Good luck!